Update, October 15, 2026: Anthropic has since told investors third-quarter revenue was $16.8 billion. The per-share math at $1.5, $1.8 and $2 trillion is in Anthropic's $16.8 Billion Quarter and the IPO Price per Share.
Key points
- Reuters obtained a copy of Anthropic's draft prospectus on September 29. The S-1 has not been filed publicly; the company confidentially submitted it on June 1. Reports put the target valuation at $2 trillion and the raise as high as $100 billion, which would be the largest IPO ever, ahead of SpaceX's $1.77 trillion debut in June.
- 2025 revenue was $4.59 billion, up from $386 million in 2024. Bloomberg reports second-quarter 2026 revenue of $11.5 billion, with the company operating at a profit for a second straight quarter. The 2025 net loss was $42 billion, of which about $34 billion was a non-cash charge.
- Anthropic has committed to $518 billion of compute over the next decade, roughly 80% of it owed whether or not the capacity is used. Two customers produced nearly a quarter of 2025 revenue.
- On PMView's implied share count, $2 trillion is about $1,220 a share. The Series H priced at $589.01 on May 28. PMView's mark is $589, and Fidelity, Alger and Ark all carried Anthropic at or just under the round price at July 31.
- The timetable, per Bloomberg: a select group of institutional investors meets management on October 14, marketing starts the week of November 9, and the stock lists as soon as mid-November. Lockup terms, the ticker and the banks are reported, not confirmed.
Why it matters
If you hold Anthropic through an SPV, a forward or directly, the number that matters is not $2 trillion. It is the gap between $589, where the last round and the mutual funds price the stock today, and roughly $1,220, where the company wants the public to price it in six weeks. That gap is where every bid and offer in the secondary market will sit until the lockup terms are public. Sellers are being asked to wait for a listing that may double their mark. Buyers are being asked to pay for a round that has not priced. Neither side has a tape to lean on: PMView has recorded no Anthropic prints since July 10.
What the draft says
Reuters reviewed a copy of the registration statement on September 29 and the rest of the press has worked from that account. The filing itself runs 261 pages, per Forbes, and gives 80 pages to risk factors against 48 pages on the business. The risk language is what made the headlines: the company tells investors its models could pose an "existential risk to humanity", and describes model behaviour that could resist being shut down or conceal information. The financial section is the part a holder should read twice.
| 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $386M | $4.59B |
| Operating expenses | $12.65B | |
| of which compute and infrastructure | $7.33B | |
| Operating loss | $2.98B | $8.06B |
| Net loss | $42B | |
| Cash and short-term investments, Dec 31 | $20.28B |
The $42 billion net loss is mostly an accounting entry. About $34 billion of it reflects a higher estimated value of financing arrangements that can convert into Anthropic stock. As the company's valuation rose through 2025, the liability attached to those instruments rose with it and ran through the income statement. The cash loss is the $8 billion operating line.
The revenue line is the reason the loss is tolerated. Bloomberg puts first-quarter 2026 revenue at $4.73 billion, more than all of 2025, and second-quarter revenue at $11.5 billion, with the company profitable on an operating basis in both quarters. The Financial Times reported in August that investors expect a run rate of $100 billion to $120 billion by year-end. That is the number the $2 trillion valuation is being sold on: roughly 17 to 20 times forward run rate, against about 43 times the second quarter annualised.
Three facts in the filing deserve more weight than they have had:
- $518 billion of compute commitments. Google is owed at least $111 billion through July 2033, Amazon $110 billion through April 2036, Microsoft $31 billion through 2033, and Broadcom-related equipment leases total about $161 billion. Around 80% of the total is payable whether or not Anthropic uses the capacity. Only the xAI arrangement, up to $84.5 billion, is largely cancellable on 90 days' notice.
- Two customers were almost a quarter of 2025 revenue, and many large customers have no long-term contract.
- Amazon, Google and Microsoft are each investor, customer, supplier, distributor and competitor, and the filing says their incentives may not be fully aligned with Anthropic's.
What the price looks like from the private side
PMView's implied share count for Anthropic is about 1.64 billion, the Series H post-money divided by its $589.01 share price. Every round since the Series E has been a step-up of more than double.
| Reference | Valuation | Per share |
|---|---|---|
| Series E, March 2025 | $61.5B | $56.09 |
| Series G, February 2026 | $380B | $259.14 |
| Series H, May 2026 | $965B | $589.01 |
| IPO at $1.5T | $1.5T | ~$916 |
| IPO at $2T | $2T | ~$1,221 |
The funds already agree with the round. At July 31, Fidelity marked its Series E through H positions at $589.01 and its Series D at $622.94. Alger carried $589. Ark's venture fund was at $557. Destiny Tech100 marked its exposure at $610 at June 30. Nine institutional filers in all, none above $625. A $2 trillion listing would be a 107% step-up over every one of them.
The tape ran ahead of the round, then stopped. In the first quarter PMView recorded 29 Anthropic prints: an average of about $273 in January, $276 in February and $334 in March, all below the $589 the Series H would set in May. From May through July there were four prints, averaging about $690 in a range from $589 to $925, the only period in which secondaries have cleared above the round. Since July 10 there has been nothing. The same pattern played out at OpenAI after its confidential filing: sellers who expect a listing stop selling, and buyers who want a discount to one stop bidding.
What a holder should do with this
Nobody knows the lockup yet. The draft has not disclosed lockup terms, and the standard 180 days is not the only template. SpaceX used a staggered schedule in June, with the first release tied to its second-quarter earnings and rolling 7% unlocks after that, and SPV and forward holders released later than direct holders. Until Anthropic's public S-1 is on EDGAR, assume the earliest you can sell on the exchange is the second quarter of 2027, and read your SPV documents for what the manager can do before that.
If you were thinking of selling now. A bid today has to be priced off $589 with a view on $1,220 six weeks out, and no buyer will pay the midpoint for the privilege of carrying the lockup. Expect offers at a discount to the round, not a premium, until the public filing lands and the first-day price is known.
If you are a buyer. The question is whether $1,220 holds after the lockup. SpaceX's own history is the caution: it priced at $135 and the pre-listing futures traded 20% above that, yet the debut was rough and the largest private companies pulled back from public pricing afterward. Anthropic at $2 trillion is being asked to carry 43 times trailing-quarter revenue with $518 billion of fixed obligations. The step-up from $589 is the opportunity and the risk in one number.
If you hold through an SPV or forward. Check three things now: whether the manager can sell into the IPO on your behalf, whether a company-led tender or right of first refusal attaches to the listing, and when your layer unlocks relative to direct holders. The last one cost SpaceX SPV holders months.
The wider read
Anthropic is the second trillion-dollar private company to reach a listing this year and the first to publish, even by leak, the full cost of frontier AI. SpaceX's June debut was the test of whether the public market would take a $1.7 trillion private company at all. Anthropic in November is the test of whether it will pay double the last private round to do so. OpenAI, weighing a private round at $1.2 trillion instead of listing, is watching the same numbers.
For the secondary market the answer sets the reference price for every late-stage AI name on the platform. If Anthropic clears $2 trillion and holds it through the lockup, the discount to the last round that has defined this market since the spring is gone. If it does not, the Series H at $589 becomes the ceiling again.
Sources: Reuters via CNBC, September 29, 2026; Fortune, September 29, 2026; InvestmentNews on the compute commitments; Forbes, September 28, 2026; Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance on the November timetable, October 1, 2026; Financial Times via Fortune on the $2 trillion target, August 13, 2026; Anthropic, June 1, 2026. Per-share figures are PMView estimates from the platform's implied share count and monthly secondary aggregates; fund marks are from N-PORT filings; individual trades are available to Pro subscribers on the Anthropic dossier.