SpaceX IPO Demand Approaches 4x Oversubscription
With trading set to begin June 12 on Nasdaq under ticker SPCX, SpaceX's $75 billion IPO at $135/share is approaching 4x oversubscribed, with over $150 billion in investor demand according to Reuters. Pricing is expected after market close on June 11.
This will be the largest IPO in U.S. history — roughly 3x the size of Alibaba's 2014 record.
The Numbers
| Detail | Value |
|---|---|
| IPO Price | $135/share (fixed) |
| Valuation | $1.77T |
| Shares Offered | 555.6M Class A |
| Amount Raised | ~$75B |
| Demand | ~$150B+ (4x oversubscribed) |
| Public Float | ~5% of total shares |
| Musk Voting Control | 82%+ post-IPO |
Bull vs. Bear
The bull case:
- 4x oversubscribed signals massive institutional conviction
- Starlink is a cash machine: $11.4B revenue, $7.2B EBITDA, 10.3M subscribers
- Monopoly position in commercial launch (80%+ of global mass to orbit)
- V3 satellites (1 Tbps each) launching H2 2026 — step-change in capacity
The bear case:
- Morningstar pegs fair value at ~$780B — roughly half the IPO valuation
- Only Starlink is profitable; xAI segment projected to burn $10B in 2026
- Combined 2025 net loss: $4.94B
- Only ~5% float creates artificial scarcity — true price discovery comes later at unlock events
- Amended S-1 added language about "significant equity for future transactions" — possible Tesla mega-merger speculation
What Happens After June 12
The staggered lock-up means liquidity doesn't end at IPO — it evolves:
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| June 12 | SPCX begins trading |
| ~August 2026 | Q2 earnings — first unlock (20-30% of eligible shares) |
| Aug-Oct 2026 | Rolling 7% unlocks every ~2 weeks |
| ~November 2026 | Q3 earnings — 28% additional unlock |
| ~December 2026 | Day 180 — full release |
Each unlock date will create volatility and trading opportunities. The Q2 earnings report is the first major test — if SPCX is trading 30%+ above $135 at that point, an additional 10% of shares unlock.
Secondary Market Context
| Source | Recent Price |
|---|---|
| Forge Global (last trade) | ~$129 |
| IPO Price | $135 |
| Hiive (model price) | ~$157 |
For secondary holders who bought below $135, June 12 marks a liquidity event and potential markup. For those above, the IPO price becomes the near-term reference point.
The Bigger Picture
SpaceX is the first of three trillion-dollar-class IPOs expected in 2026:
| Company | IPO Date | Valuation |
|---|---|---|
| SpaceX | June 12 | $1.77T |
| OpenAI | ~September | $852B-$1T+ |
| Anthropic | ~October | $965B-$1.8T |
The reception of SPCX will set the tone for OpenAI and Anthropic. A strong debut validates trillion-dollar tech IPOs; a stumble could cool the entire pipeline.
Sources: Reuters/BNN Bloomberg, CNBC, Fortune